Suppose they gave a presidential primary and nobody cared?

That is the problem facing Maryland as it approaches its vote March 7 -- so-called Super Tuesday, when 10 other states have primaries.

With its proximity to the nation's capital, its highly educated populace full of important opinion-makers, and its reputation for giving hope to quixotic campaigns with surprise victories -- from George Wallace to Jerry Brown to Paul E. Tsongas -- one might think that Maryland would be a sought-after prize.

Think again. On Super Tuesday, Maryland is a sapling lost amid the giant redwoods of California, New York and Ohio.

"In terms of Iowa and New Hampshire, California and New York, Maryland is insignificant," says Arthur W. Murphy, a Washington-based political consultant. "We are not even a flea on a camel's hump."

The numbers tell the story. Though Maryland has more delegates than those chosen this week in Iowa or next week in New Hampshire, it doesn't have their lead-off position. And it is dwarfed on Super Tuesday.

Of the 1,999 delegates from the 11 states with primaries March 7, Maryland has but 123 -- 92 for Democrats and 31 for Republicans.

By contrast, 434 Democratic and 162 Republican delegates are at stake in California; 294 Democrats and 101 Republicans in New York; 170 Democrats and 69 Republicans in Ohio. Those are the big three Super Tuesday prizes.

"It seems to me that there are a whole lot of states that begin with the letter M that are about the same size," says Republican pollster Carol Ar- scott of the Super Tuesday also-rans.

The M states that Maryland joins in the second tier are Massachusetts and Missouri, with Georgia and Connecticut. That group is a bit above Maine, Rhode Island and Vermont.

"There is no way or shape on earth that Maryland will ever be a significant player by virtue of size," Murphy says. "It is intellectually interesting, but no more."

Says Arscott: "The outcome is not going to hinge on what happens here."

Making headlines

The nomination has never hinged on what happened in Maryland, but the state did manage to make headlines on the Democratic side when the primary was in mid-May. In 1912, Champ Clark beat Woodrow Wilson, though Wilson went on to get the nomination at the convention in Baltimore.

In 1964, George Wallace nearly won over favorite son Daniel Brewster and, in 1972 -- no primary was held in that divisive year 1968 -- Wallace did win, one of his most successful forays out of the old Confederacy. Four years after that, Jerry Brown won a surprise victory over Jimmy Carter.

Such results make Rob Johnson, executive director of the Maryland Democratic Party, think the state will receive attention this campaign season.

"The sense I'm getting from the presidential campaigns is that they will not ignore us," he says. "They are nervous about Maryland because of our history." A case in point, he says, is Tsongas' 1992 victory here over Bill Clinton.

"You can't just take a pass on Maryland," Johnson says. "You have to work if you want to win here. We've got a little bit of a maverick streak."

Roger Berliner, state coordinator for Bill Bradley, also says Democratic candidates will pay attention to Maryland.

`Classic confrontation'

"I think it is perceived as a significant state," he says, "You have a classic confrontation here -- a large number of liberal, progressive, independent Democrats, machine Democrats, labor Democrats, a large African-American community. It's a perfect setup. And as a border state it has implications heading south.

"But will we get the same attention as California or New York? Of course not," Berliner says. "I wouldn't recommend to the candidate to spend as much time here as in those states."

All agree that predicting the shape of campaigns anywhere is impossible until after the primary Tuesday in New Hampshire. If the race is still alive, Maryland could get lost in the stampede for as many delegates as possible, or receive attention from candidates hoping to keep campaigns alive by winning smaller states.

Berliner says he certainly expects Bradley to campaign here, but can make no promises. "It is too early to determine," he says. "In this business, you learn that matters are fluid from one hour to the next, much less one week to the next."

Richard Bennett, chairman of the state Republican Party, says it remains to be seen how his party's candidates will treat the state.

"I cannot specifically state that any major candidate will be in Maryland," Bennett said. "You hear rumors, but I can't say for certain."

Maryland got caught in the Catch-22 of primary scheduling -- either join the rush for a date early in the process and get overshadowed by the big states, or stick with a later date when the stage is empty but the nomination is probably decided.

"The primary process is so front-loaded that it provides a greater opportunity for the early favorites," says Herb Smith, a professor of political science at Western Maryland College. "It is tending toward short attention span theater rather than the lengthy, more deliberative process it was in the '60s."

One of the crowd

When its primary was held in mid-May, Maryland was a significant detour on the well-trod primary road that in those days ended in California two weeks later. In early March, it is just one of the crowd.

"On Super Tuesday, the news will be New York and California -- period," says Murphy. "I would be surprised if Maryland is in the first 10 paragraphs of the AP story."

Bennett says the national Republican party is re-examining the issue of primary schedules. Murphy is one of many who believe regional primaries should be held to involve groups of states with rotating dates so each would get a turn going first.

"The current process doesn't make any sense," he says. "The egos of states are on the line more than anything else. A regional primary system is by far the best."

Johnson agrees. "The party doesn't officially have a position on that, but personally I would love to see something along those lines," he says. "By rotating it, you would spread the influence around."

But Berliner says such arguments have no impact on the job he and his colleagues must do between now and March 7. "A lot of people are uncomfortable with the current primary setup," he says. "But it is the reality we are operating under."

Baltimore SUN Sep 16 1999
O'Malley support strong in poorer neighborhoods, analyst says
Associated Press

BALTIMORE (AP) -- Martin O'Malley received his strongest support from poor neighborhoods, both black and white, to win the Democratic mayoral primary over two black candidates, a review of the vote from a sampling of precincts showed.

A number of political analysts said O'Malley's tough stand on crime resonated with residents in those areas.

''It's not surprising it came from those neighborhoods because they are experiencing chronic battle fatigue from drugs and crime, and they are going to be responsive to any candidate that makes that a priority,'' said Lenneal Henderson, a professor in the School of Public Affairs at the University of Baltimore.

Meanwhile, Carl Stokes, who is black, did better among white voters in wealthier neighborhoods, but did not garner nearly enough votes to overcome O'Malley's strength among black voters, said Arthur Murphy, an independent political analyst.

''All the preliminary polling showed that Stokes was going to do well in white neighborhoods (overall) and that evaporated,'' Murphy said.

Meanwhile, O'Malley got as much as 33 percent of the vote in some heavily black, poorer precincts.

''The lower you went in income, the worse he did,'' Murphy said of Stokes. ''The higher you went in income in white homeowner neighborhoods, the better he did, but better was still only 11 or 12 percent, and worse was 3 percent.''

O'Malley received 53 percent of the total vote, while Stokes received 28 percent. City Council President Lawrence Bell received 17 percent of the vote.

Murphy based his findings on individual precinct results gathered from about a dozen predominantly black and a dozen predominantly white neighborhoods, he said.

O'Malley credited his victory to a positive campaign that focused on issues and not race.

''We never dabbled in divisive politics or hate politics and people responded,'' O'Malley said Wednesday.

Carol Arscott of Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications in Annapolis said O'Malley was also successful in winning over older black women, a constituency with a traditionally strong turnout that responded well to the public safety message.

Ms. Arscott said even in neighborhoods where outgoing Mayor Kurt Schmoke beat white challenger and then City Council President Mary Pat Clark by 10-to-1 margins in 1995, O'Malley picked up a significant number of votes.

''I think O'Malley probably had to exceed everyone's expectations, even his own, all throughout the city,'' Ms. Arscott said.

Schmoke said the election proves that race is becoming less of a factor in Baltimore politics. Schmoke said Baltimore is not alone, noting Denver and Seattle are majority white cities that have elected black mayors.

''I just think people looked at the issues, looked at character,'' Schmoke said.

He said that while O'Malley was often his critic, the two worked well on budget issues.

''The Democrats have elected a shrewd politician and now we hope he is a wise leader,'' Schmoke said.

O'Malley is easily expected to defeat the winner of the Republican primary, developer David Tufaro, in the general election because Democrats outnumber Republicans 9-to-1 in the city.

Tufaro, who is also white, said he was also pleased that did not appear to be a factor in O'Malley's nomination. He said he would try to appeal to the mostly Democratic electorate by emphasizing his record as a strong advocate of neighborhoods.

''I think that's the best measure of what somebody's going to do in the future,'' Tufaro said.